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Crisis and Emerging Regional Order in the Middle East

Thesis Info

Author

Noor Saeed Syrian Khan

Department

Department of International Relations

Program

Mphil

Institute

National University of Modern Languages

Institute Type

Public

City

Islamabad

Province

Islamabad

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2014

Subject

International Relations

Language

English

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676728740133

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The strategic importance of Syria in the Middle East is mainly due to its location. Syria has been a kind of resistance front of the Arabs against Israel and the significance of the Syrian question needs to be discovered in Syria's indispensible role in the regional geostrategic pattern. When Arab Spring brought political changes in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, Syria was never thought to be immune to the tinge of those changes. The mass demonstrations in Syria, driven by the desire of change, in late 2010, turned to violent protests, leaving destruction, disorder and chaos behind them. The crisis in Syria is still continuing ferociously with abysmal repercussions for the Middle East. Today, Syrian crisis has different dimensions which are ranging from involvement of different regional and trans-regional states to various armed, religio-political and jihadists groups, turning the crisis to a serious regional conflagration. The Assad regime is struggling for its survival against the rebels, who are struggling for regime change in Syria. The involvement of the pro and anti-regime regional states and pro and anti-regime trans-regional states is the significant point, driving the crisis on grave sectarian, ethnic and social lines. In fact, it would be safer to say that Syrian crisis has created deep political divisions not in only amongst the world community but also on regional political horizons. Syrian crisis has created far reaching social, political, strategic and economic implications in Syria and the entire Middle East. The crisis is not only claiming priceless lives of people, crippling many for life, rendering numerous homeless but also altering the traditional security dynamics, strategic calculations and above all regional order of the Middle East. To sum up, Syrian crisis has become one of the gravest flash points in the Middle East, turning the social and political fabric of the society there. It has given birth to a regional order in Middle East where Iran is emerging as the most powerful regional reality, shaping the future political contours of the region on its own version of interests.
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المبحث الرابع: الفراق

المبحث الرابع: الفراق

قصيدة (لنفترق)([1]) لنازک الملائكة

لنفترق الآن ما دامَ في مقلتینا بریق
وما دام في قعر کأسي وکأسک بعض الرحیقُ 
فعمّا قلیلٍ یطلُّ الصباح ویخبو القمر
ونلمح في الضوء ما رسمتُہ أکفُّ الضجر

علی جبھتینا
وفي شفتینا

وندرک أن الشعور الرقیق
مضى ساخراً وطواہُ القدر

* * *

لنفترق الآنَ ، ما زالَ في شفتينا نغَم
تكبّر أن يكشفَ السر فاختار صمتَ العدَم
وما زال في قطراتِ الندى شفةٌ تتغنّى
وما زال وجهُكَ مثلَ الظلامِ له اَلف معنى

كسته الظلال
جمال المُحال

وقد يعتريهِ جُمُود الصنَم
إذا رفع الليلُ كفيّه عنّا

* * *
لنفترقِ الآن، أسمع صوتاً وراء النخیل
رھیباً أجشّ الرنینِ یذکّرني بالرحیلُ
وأشعر کفیک ترتعشانِ کأنّک تُخفي
شعورَک مثلي وتحبس صرخۃَ حُزنٍ وخوفِ

لم الإرتجاف؟
وفیم نخاف؟

ألسنا سنُدرک عما قلیل
بأن الغرام غمامۃ صیف

* * *

لنفترق الآن، کالغرباء، وننسی الشّعور
وفي الغد یشرقُ دھرٌ جدیدٌ وتمضي عصور
وفیم التذکّر؟ ھل کان غیرُ رؤیً([2]) عابرة
أطافت ھنا برفیقین في ساعۃٍ غابرة؟

وغیرُ مساء
طواہُ الفناء

وأبقی صداہُ وبعض سطور
من الشعر في شفتي شاعرة؟

* * *
لنفترق الآن، أشعر بالبرد والخوفِ۔ دعنا
نغادر ھذا المکان ونرجع من حیثُ جئنا
غریبین نسحبُ عبء ادّاکارتنا الباھتہ
وحیدین نحمل أصداء قصتنا المائتۃ

Globalization and Socioeconomic Realities: An Analysis of Mohsin Hamid’s How to Get Filthy Rich in Rising Asia

Globalization, a term widely debated in contemporary discourse, encompasses multifaceted dimensions and effects that permeate various aspects of society, including the economy, politics, geography, cultures, and individual perceptions. This article delves into the diverse dimensions of globalization and its far-reaching impact on both local and global perspectives, with a particular focus on its influence on individuals worldwide. Through the lens of Mohsin Hamid’s novel, "How to Get Filthy Rich in Rising Asia," this study examines the repercussions of globalization on the lives of ordinary Pakistanis, shedding light on the lengths to which individuals go to secure a higher social standing. Drawing upon Reader Response Theory by Wolfgang Iser, this analysis offers valuable insights into the nuanced portrayal of globalization in Hamid’s work, shedding light on the symbiotic relationship between individuals and this pervasive global force. Ultimately, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of the intricate dynamics between globalization and socioeconomic realities, paving the way for informed strategies to address its multifaceted implications.

Climate Change and its Impact on Streamflows in Mangla Watershed Using Gis Based Hydrological Modeling

Pakistan‘s economy is based on agriculture that is highly dependent on water resources originating in the mountain sources of the Upper Indus Basin. Climate change may have serious implications for the management of water resources. The aim of this study was to examine the variability analysis in temperatures and precipitation and its impact on streamflows of Mangla Basin, UIB Pakistan using GIS based hydrological modeling. Trend analyses were performed by applying parametric and non-parametric tests and Sen‘s method was applied to estimate change values in time series. The influence of serial correlation was eliminated from time series by applying the Trend-Free Pre-Whitening (TFPW) method prior to the trend analysis. Firstly, a trend analysis was performed to examine whether climate is really changing in the study area. This trend analysis was performed on discharge, precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures for the period 1961-2010 and investigates the relationship between trends in hydrological variable (streamflows) and trends in meteorological variables (precipitations & temperature). The spatial maps of hydrometeorological variables were also developed to examine hydro-climatologically variability in the study area. The future climate change scenarios were developed with the help of SDSM model, a statistical downscaling approach based model, by using the outputs of the HadCM3 model. The river flow in Mangla basin depends on seasonal snowmelt and rainfall. So, the streamflow was simulated using the SWAT model, a physically based distributed hydrologic model that uses a GIS interface and readily available input data such as Digital Elevation Model (DEM), climate, soil and land-use data. The future stream flows were also simulated based on future developed climate change scenario using calibrated SWAT model.Results of this study revealed that warming trends were observed in the southern part (lower part) of study area whereas in northern part (higher part), cooling trends were found. Precipitation in low elevated basins Poonch and Kanshi has decreased whereas in high elevated Kunhar and Neelum basins have the significant increasing trends. Trends were more common in mean and low streamflows compared to high streamflows. The annual minimum flow at the outlet of Mangla watershed has decreased whereas mean and maximum flow has increased. The streamflow in winter and spring seasons has increased whereas in summer and autumn seasons have decreased. The changes in annual maximum temperature for future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) in the whole basin would be increases by about 0.4, 0.7 and 1.2 oC respectively under A2 high emission scenario. Decreasing trends in maximum temperature were observed for the high elevated subbasins in northern region of Mangla watershed (Kunhar and Neelum) while low elevated subbasins (Poonch and Kanshi) have the increasing trends. The annual minimum temperature for future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) in the Mangla basin would be 0.3, 0.5 and 0.9 oC respectively. The annual precipitation would be increased by 6, 10, and 19 % in Mangla basin in 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively whereas in Kunhar, Neelum, Poonch and Kanshi basin may be increased by 16, 11, 13 and 59% respectively in 2080s. The future climate change scenarios have impacts on hydrological system resulting in 15% increased annual streamflows whereas for the winter, spring and summer seasons would be increased upto 16%, 19% and 20% respectively while for the autumn would be decreased upto17% in 2080s.. The prevailing trends and variability, caused by climate change, have an effect on the flows that should be considered by the water managers for better water management in a water scarce country like Pakistan.