المبحث الثاني: الألم والفراق
قصيدة (السفر) لنازك الملائكة[1]
أنا وحدي فوق صدر البحر یا زورق[2] فارجع
عبثاً أنتظرُ الآن فنجمي لیس یطلعْ
ھبّتِ الرّیحُ علی البحر الجُنونيّ المُروعْ
فلتعُد للشاطیء الساجي[3] بقلبي المتضرّعْ[4]
عد الی الشاطیء، عدّ ما عاد یحلو لي البقاءُ
ذھبَ البحرُ بأصحابي الی حیثُ الضیاءُ
أنا وحدي، أیھا الملاّحُ، حزنٌ وبُکاءُ
یرجعُ الزورقُ بي وحدي إذا جاءَ المساءُ
ذھبوا للشاطیءِ المسحور إذ عدتُ لوحدي
ذھبوا إلا أنا، عدتُ بأحزاني وسُھدي[5]
لم أصب[6] في رحلتي إلاّ صباباتي [7]وجھدي[8]
فلیکن، یا بحرُ ، ھذا، بالمنيّ[9] آخر عھدي
کیف یا بحر تواری[10] الرکب خلفَ الجزرِ؟
کیف یذوي[11] في فؤادي الصّب[12] حلّم السّفَر؟
عز[13] یا بحرُ علی موجک بُرء[14] الصدَر
فلأ عُدّ، لا رحمۃ الآن بقلب القَدَرِ[15]
فلأعُد للساحل المظلم قلباً مستطاراً[16]
أدفِنُ الحلمَ وأحیي زھرۃً وسطَ الصَّحاری
أبداً أروي أناشیدي بأحزان الحیاری[17]
أبداً أحلُم بالفجرِ فلا ألقَی النّھارا
أیّھا الزّرورق عُد بي، لم یعُد ثمّۃَ[18] حلمُ
قد مضی الرّکبُ ولن یُشرق في أفقي نجم
ما الذي أرجو ومن حولي المساءُ المدلھمُّ[19]
والأعاصیرُ[20]، وأشباحُ[21] الدیاجي[22]، والخضمُّ[23]
أیّھا الشّاطیءُ، یا منبع أحلامي، وداعا
سئم[24] المجدافُ[25]...
The key objective of this paper is to find the relationship between the liberal narratives in Pakistan on relationship with India and its effects on universities students’ perception of terrorism. There is a consensus among some prominent scholars that right wing political parties, security establishment and big media houses are producing a kind of national security narrative based on the troika; India as security threat to Pakistan, Islam as rallying cry for national cohesion, and support from great powers to finance ambitious security dominated foreign policy about the neighboring countries that does not help in counter-terrorism at home. This paper has adopted quantitative research method. It is a descriptive study and data was collected from four major public sector universities through survey questionnaires. The liberal narrative on India is weaker in Punjab on all issues. The findings of liberal narratives on India reject the claims of existing literature that there is a positive relationship between liberal narrative about India in Pakistan and counter-terrorism measures in FATA. Three variables researched in case study of Afghanistan reject the existing literature that there is a positive relationship between liberal narrative and counter-terrorism measures.
This study estimates a DSGE model and three versions of VAR models to analyze forecast performance of these models in context of Pakistan. Three versions of VAR models (VARX. BVARX and BVAR) and, a variant of Adolfson. Laséen. Lindé, and Villani (2007) DSGE model have been estimated using quarterly data (1980Q4-2016Q2). Expanding window recursive out-of-sample forecasts for GDP growth, call money rate, CPI inflation and change in exchange rate are generated and compared over the period 2009Q1-2016Q2. Forecasting performance is analyzed by the comparison of bias and root mean squared errors (RMSE). Comparison of forecasting performance shows that, VAR models provide better forecasts than estimated DSGE model. However, in case of GDP growth, interest rate and inflation, forecasting performance of estimated DSGE model appears to be quite close to VAR models. Forecasts from all models are positively correlated, detiorate in turbulant times and improve in relatively calm periods