ٹنڈے کباب(طنزومزاح)
ڈاکٹر عبدالرافع
عہد حاضر کے جواں سال طنزو مزاح نگار ،بچوں کے شاعر ڈاکٹر محبوب حسن اپنی تخلیقی جدت کاری و بنت کاری اور ذہنی اختراع کے لیے خاصا مشہور ہیں۔ انھیں پرورش لوح و قلم سے ذہنی مناسبت اور قلبی لگاؤہے۔ تخلیقی ادب بالخصوص میدانِ طنزومزاح کے شہسوار ہیں۔ طنزومزاح کے علاوہ انھیں ادب اطفال اور تحقیق و تنقید سے بھی خاص شغف ہے ،لیکن ان کی بنیادی شناخت ایک طنزومزاح نگار کی حیثیت سے ہے۔ادب اطفال کے حوالے سے ان کی کتاب ‘‘تتلی رانی’’شائع ہو کر قارئین ، مداحین اور ناقدین سے داد و تحسین حاصل کر چکی ہے۔ ‘‘عصمت چغتائی و جین آسٹین’’اور‘‘نکات فکشن’’ جیسی قابل قدر کتابیں موصوف کی تحقیقی و تنقیدی جدت پسندی کی نشاندہی کرتی ہیں۔‘‘عصمت چغتائی و جین آسٹین’’میں مشرق و مغرب کے دو معروف خواتین تخلیق کاروں کی ناول نگاری کا تقابلی مطالعہ پیش کیا گیا ہے جبکہ ‘‘نکات فکشن’’ ان کے تحقیقی و تنقیدی مضامین کا مجموعہ ہے۔طنزیہ و مزاحیہ مضامین پر مشتمل پیش نظر کتاب ‘‘ٹنڈے کباب ’’ ان کی تازہ ترین تخلیقی کاوش ہے۔
ڈاکٹر محبوب حسن کا تخلیقی کارنامہ ‘‘ٹنڈے کباب ’’ طنزومزاح کے میدان میں ایک خوش گوار اضافے کی حیثیت رکھتا ہے۔اپنی پیہم تخلیقی سرگرمیوں کے باعث انہوں نے کم عرصے میں ہی ادب کے ایک وسیع حلقے کو اپنا گرویدہ بنا لیا ہے۔موصوف عام گفتگو میں بھی طنزومزاح کا کوئی نہ کوئی پہلو تلاش کر لیتے ہیں۔ ‘‘ٹنڈے کباب’’اعدادوشمار کے اعتبار سے کل تیرہ مضامین پر مشتمل ہے۔یہ مضامین شگوفہ،کتاب نما،ذہن جدید،ایوان اردو،نیا دور،کسوٹی جدید ، خبرنامہ،انقلاب،کشمیر عظمی ،متاع آخرت،اردو نیٹ جاپان،راشٹریہ سہارا،انڈین اکسپریس جیسے مؤقر ادبی رسائل وروزناموں میں اشاعت ہو کر مقبول خٓص و عام ہو چکے ہیں۔ ان مضامین میں نہ توفلسفیانہ باتیں مذکور ہیں اور نہ ہی کسی اندیکھی دنیاکی داستان پیش کی گئی ہے بلکہ...
Water is a sign of life, all living beings need it to remain alive. It is natural commodity and three fourth of this planet is water. Still not all is suitable for human consumption and sufficient to meet the ever increasing demands. Availability and supply of water is getting scarce with increasing population of states especially the developing societies. If we look at the history of life on this planet, we find that the humanity has suffered disasters on acquisition and possession of natural resources which are vital for survival of one group, may be at the cost of others. Water falls in that category where if not properly managed its scarcity and stress would lead to unending conflicts and wars till demands equals the supply with the destruction of extra consumptions. Solution to the disastrous situation is in efficient management of water. The efficient and effective management combines awareness and justified storage and distribution of water by the states within their domains. Modern technology and management provides solutions for this efficient management of water by the states. ______
This study is an attempt to investigate the export-growth nexus and the impact of supply-side factors on the export performance of Pakistan at a disaggregated level. It has identified major export categories of Pakistan and constructed a novel time series data set of each of these categories from 1971 to 2014. The principal objective of the study is to examine the impact of disaggregated exports on economic growth and determine how much of the variance in economic growth can be explained by various export categories in Pakistan. It allows us to classify exports in terms of their contribution to the long-term economic growth of Pakistan. In addition, the study also discovers the role of prices, cost, production capacity and domestic demand pressure in determining Pakistan’s exports. Using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, the empirical results show that there is a significant long-term equilibrium relationship between output growth and aggregate, and disaggregated export categories. Moreover, the long-run dynamics indicate that aggregate, manufactured and services exports have significant positive effects on the long-term output growth while primary and semi-manufactured exports showed insignificant effects on non-export GDP in the long-run. However, with further decomposition, the analyses of primary export categories show an individual impact on non-exports GDP which is positive and significant. The long run growth impact of food exports such as rice, fruits, fish and fish preparation is stronger compared to raw materials exports. In addition, the estimation results also indicate that all sub-categories of manufactured exports have a significant positive influence on the non-export GDP in the long-run though with few qualifications. However, the value-added manufactured goods exports have the potential to contribute more to the long-term aggregate output in Pakistan’s case. The results of the Granger causality test based on vector error correction model also confirmed that aggregate, manufactured, and services exports Granger causes the non-export GDP, while no causal link is found from primary and semi-manufactured exports to non-export GDP in both the short- and the long-run. In the case of sub-categories of primary and manufactured exports, the findings showed a causal link from only food items and value-added manufactured exports to non-export GDP in both the short- and the long-run. Similarly, the variance decomposition analysis also confirmed that manufactured and services exports have significant effects on non-export GDP, while shock in primary and semi-manufactured exports are found to be insignificant in explaining variation in non-export GDP. However, when primary and manufactured exports divided into sub-categories, then the shocks in value-added exports and food items exports are found to be significant in explaining movement in non-export GDP. To sum up, the results of all three tests suggest that export-led growth hypothesis cannot be rejected for Pakistan in most cases in both the short- and the long-run. However, the services, food items, and value-added manufactured exports are much more important for the output growth in the case of Pakistan. With respect to the determinants of export supply, the empirical results based on ARDL model show a cointegrating relationship between aggregate exports, disaggregated export categories and other important variables under study. In addition, long-run estimates indicate that aggregate exports are highly elastic to changes in prices and production capacity while inelastic to changes in the cost of production and domestic demand. When aggregate exports are disaggregated into several primary and manufactured export categories, however, major export categories respond differently to changes in various factors of export supply. For instance, the relative prices have a larger impact on the export performance of raw materials and value-added manufactured products. Similarly, the cost of production has higher effects on the growth of value added manufactured and cotton waste exports. On the contrary, production capacity and domestic demand pressures have significantly influenced the export supply almost all manufactured and primary export categories in the long-run. In the short-run, the relative price, cost of production and production capacity showed mixed effects on the export supply of majority primary and manufactured export categories, while the domestic demand pressure hypothesis is valid almost in all cases of primary and manufactured export categories in the short-run. This implies that the export supply almost of all primary and manufactured export categories significantly depends on the domestic demand pressure in the short-run in Pakistan’s case. Apart from this, the study also empirical verified that that domestic demand pressure has a negative and significant effect on export supply at both aggregate and disaggregated levels, implying that along with traditional factors, domestic demand pressures are also relevant for modeling the export supply for Pakistan at both aggregated and disaggregated levels. Finally, the study concludes that export-led growth hypothesis is relevant to Pakistan. However, there are large differences in the effects of exports on non-export GDP across various export categories. Services, food items, and value-added manufactured exports can contribute more to the aggregate output in the long-run in Pakistan’s case. Therefore, it is suggested that Pakistan should pursue the export promotion policy with a greater emphasis on services, food items, and value-added manufactured exports to contribute sufficiently to the economic growth of the country in the long run.In addition, the disaggregated analysis also clarifies that the factors determining the export supply have changed over time and across the various categories of exports.Hence, the government must revisit the export policy and make the new policy in line with new sectoral realities in order to expand the export sector of the country as well as to ensure the economic prosperity of the country on a sustainable basis.