Asian Research Thesis Index

Abstract

The term vulnerability denotes the degree to which human and environmental systems are likely to experience harm due to some perturbation or stress. One such stress is drought, which can be defined as a protracted period of deficient precipitation which causes depletion in which could prove fatal for crop yield.  	The scope of the impacts of drought largely depends upon the vulnerability of the affected area. There are two main types of drought vulnerabilities, namely, element vulnerability and system vulnerability. Element vulnerability refers to the degree of potential physical damage to the target elements at risk such as crops, livestock, soil, etc., in response to a hazard event of a given intensity, whereas system vulnerability refers to the conditions determined by the physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility of an anthropogenic system to the effects of hazards. The predominantly arid climate of Pakistan and the dependence of its economy on agriculture make it highly susceptible to effects of climate change, particularly drought.  	In this context, the proposed study was conducted to assess the vulnerability of the arid regions of Pakistan to drought, with particular reference to the climate change scenario. Meteorological, agricultural, hydrological and socio-economic data was collected from various primary and secondary sources and three different indices (each representing a separate aspect of drought vulnerability) were prepared with the help of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). For the drought exposure index, the variables used were annual potential evapotranspiration, annual precipitation, aridity index value, per capita food grains production, rural population as percentage of total population, population density and percentage of area covered by barren, uncultivable land. For the drought sensitivity index, the variables used were percentage of farms using draught animals for tilling, percentage of cultivated area covered by plant protection measures, percentage of area covered by canal irrigation, percentage of area covered by forests, percentage of fragmented farms, percentage deviation of wheat production (from 30-year mean) during last major country-wide drought episode (1998-2002) and percentage NDVI change from 1998-2002. Variables used for the drought adaptive capacity index were percentage of farms having tube wells/water pumps, percentage of farm households under debt, percentage of farm households having additional income other than agriculture, percentage of farms having access to facilities for storing and preserving agricultural produce, percentage of farms reporting very heavy financial losses during last major drought episode (1998-2002), percentage of uneducated persons among agricultural population and percentage of farmers with access to crop insurance. Values of the exposure and sensitivity indices were added together and values of the drought adaptive capacity index were subtracted from it to create a composite drought vulnerability index of each district of the country. 	Findings of the study indicated that districts of Sindh and Baluchistan provinces were most vulnerable to drought, followed by KPK and Punjab provinces. Sindh and Baluchistan also ranked high on the drought exposure and sensitivity indices but achieved low scores on the adaptive capacity index. On the other hand, KPK and Punjab achieved comparatively lower scores on the exposure and sensitivity indices but ranked higher on the adaptive capacity index.

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