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Predicting Financial Distress Using Machine Learning Techniques in Services Sector of Pakistan

Thesis Info

Access Option

External Link

Author

Memoona Ilyas

Institute

Virtual University of Pakistan

Institute Type

Public

City

Lahore

Province

Punjab

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2017

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Software Engineering

Language

English

Link

http://vspace.vu.edu.pk/detail.aspx?id=92

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676720964890

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Financial distress is an active research area particularly for business community of Pakistan due to economic conditions, electricity shortage and political situation. Banks are also taking keen interest in this area after the global financial crisis of year 2008. Therefore, the question that how financial distress can be predicted accurately has been widely debated by many scholars by using traditional statistical models. However, earlier research has not adequately addressed the issue of predicting financial distress. Adding to that the rate of financial distress is also getting harder to estimate by using traditional statistical models, because firms are becoming more complex and creating refined plans to hide their real financial situation. To prevent this condition latest prediction models are adopted by many countries which can give early indication of firm?s financial distress with highly accurate results. In this regard, prediction of financial distress by Neural Network Model is not much explored in Pakistan for foreseeing the financial health of firms. This paper addresses this issue and uses Neural Network Model to predict financial distress of firms in Pakistan by selecting suitable independent variables. The sample of 22 private sector conventional banks listed at Pakistan Stock Exchange is selected. The time series financial statements of these banks are selected for 15 years (2001 to 2015).Selected sample time frame is (pre-crisis 2001-2007), (crisis 2008) and (post-crisis 2009-2015). To test first hypothesis,4 Altman''s ratios from revised Altman''s Z-Score Model are calculated from these financial statements of selected banks. This study used three layered Neural Network Model consisting of input layer, hidden layer and output layer. The 4 independent explanatory variables/ input are 4 Altman''s ratios and 1 dependent variable/output is probable financial distress. After determining the Neural Network architecture, cross-validation re-sampling procedure is used to train, validate, and test a Neural Network by using commerciallyavailable MATLAB software. The best and most appropriate Neural Networks model, constructed by combining input variables of 4 Altman''s ratios, resulted in the R value of 0.99 that shows a relatively high accuracy given the error ratio in the input variables. These results confirmed the second hypothesis. By testing third hypothesis, distressed and non distressed banks are correctly classified with reference to Altman?s ratio
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غزل

ظلمت سے الجھ پڑنا دامن کو جلا لینا

آ یا نہیں لوگوں کو جگنو سے دعا لینا

 

دکھ درد نکلتا ہے دکھ درد سنانے سے

تصویر کو کیا کرنا تصویر سے کیا لینا

 

بالی ترے کانوں کی جھومر ترے ماتھے کا

فتنوں کو ہوا دینا محشر سا اٹھا لینا

 

یہ رفض ہمارا تھا یہ رفض ہمارا ہے

یا عشق مدد کرنا یا عشق بچا لینا

 

دنیا کی پہنچ اتنی دنیا کا ہنر اتنا

رستوں کو جدا کرنا دیوار اٹھا لینا

 

ارمان رہا دل میں حسرت ہی رہی دل میں

اس پیکر ۔مرجاں کو سینے سے لگا لینا

 

اک عمر گزاری ہے قاسم اسی الجھن میں

دروازہ کھلا رکھنا زنجیر گرا لینا

جانوروں کے مسائل و مشکلات اور ان کا اسلامی حل

There are countless cases of cruelty and abuse of animals in the present era which are not mentioned in Islamic law, It is a pity that most of these atrocities are taking place in the so-called civilized western countries. However, it is heartening to see that the protest against the cruel exploitation by many western animal rights activists is well organized and it is hoped that this will eventually prevail and the animals will be given their due legitimate rights will remain together. What is worrying is that the developing countries, most of which are Islamic countries, have begun to follow their Western masters. They use the West's (Intensive Farming Methods) pesticides, which are harmful to humans and animals and do more harm to the environment than benefit crops, and lead to millions of animals being traded, exported or Similarly, the experiments that are done with reference to new products that are behind the maximum profit and follow them in the form of other similar luxuries. This article describes instructional teachings offered by Islam in such matters, which are very helpful and useful in raising awareness.

مسلم امہ میں فکری اصلاح: جہات اور تدارک

Intellectual reforms in Muslim Umma (Dimensions & Solutions as per contemporary perspective) is a title, which is widely spread. Thought is a general term. Its involvement is existing in each department of human education. Every item of the world requires thoughts. Thinking is common and knowledge is different than thinking. Knowledge and thoughts are essential for each other. But when thinking converts from the ordinary to its specific philosophical meaning, then improvement starts from the thinking. Thought is also used in the meaning of thinking exploration, passion, and crazy and adore, similarly, religious & secular. Intellectual system plays a key role in the rise and the fall of societies and nations. Islamic thinking is a separate code of nature living system from secular thinking system. The thesis has an idea of the Islamic thinking which provides results from a combination of thoughts and actions together. So it has a separate code of nature in humanities. The thesis lemmatized in two ways. Mostly focused on religious traditions. Council reforms situation could be recovered. However, non-Islamic and secular thoughts also briefly considered into account & written, so obvious traits of Islamic thoughts can be highlighted. Due to this reformation of Muslim thinking, Muslim thinking and physical rehabilitation can be made possible to achieve its real goal. First of all meanings of thinking and optimization specific and struggle made with the help of words & sentences to emphasize the thinking. Muslim Ummah should understand the status of Islamic thinking and about the thinking condition of Muslim nation. In this way Muslims can get the religious, political, economic and cultural rise again. The concept of thinking reforms presented in Muslim nation is less than other reforms. These are the four religious, educational, political, and cultural dimensions which are developed during reparable work in demise rule and people forget the thinking of demise rule. Muslim Nation divided into three parts of the world. Reformation of Muslim thinking is not possible without each part's confusion's through into practical measures and thinking revivals proposed, being remained in the same region. These three sections of Muslim world are different in terms of population, means and in terms of wealth.