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A Macroeconometric Model for Trade Policy Evaluation: Evidence from Pakistan

Thesis Info

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Author

Jawaid, Syed Tehseen

Program

PhD

Institute

University of Karachi

City

Karachi

Province

Sindh

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2018

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Economics

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/10404/1/Syed%20Tehseen%20Jawaid_Eco_2018_UoK_PRR.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676724420880

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Trade policies are an essential enabler of economic growth, job creation, and poverty reduction for developed as well as developing countries. Trade provides new market opportunities for domestic firms, stronger productivity, and innovation through competition. The macroeconometric modelsplay an important contribution in policy optimization. After reviewing Pakistan’s regional trade performance, it is concluded that regional trade can play a vital role in the economic development of Pakistan. To sustain this improvement, there is a need to construct a macroeconomic model to forecast regional trade and perform scenario analysis to make growth enhancing policies for the country. In this study, we develop a macroeconometric model for evaluation of region related trade policyand forecasting of trade performance of Pakistan. These regions are Organization of Islamic Council (OIC), Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Association of SouthEast Asian Nations (ASEAN), South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and the rest of the world. Macroeconometric model has been developed that contains 15 behavioral equations and 8 identities. Cointegration results suggest there exist long run relationships among variables of all behavioral equations. Additionally, results of different policy shocks based on (i) export price, (ii) importprice, (iii) exchange rate, (iv) foreign direct investment, (v) interest rate and (vi) foreign exchange reservesuggest that the model is useful for economic planning to sustain growth performance of Pakistan. In addition to this, it is also noticed that very few studies attempt to examine the relationship between international trade and human development. Some panel and cross section studies have been done but mostly Pakistan has not been included. This study also examines first time ever the effect of aggregate and disaggregates trade on human development in Pakistan by vi using annual time series data. This study contains five models in which human development with (i) total trade (ii) aggregate exports (iii) aggregate imports (iv) exports of primary commodities, semi manufactured goods and manufactured goods and (v) imports of consumer goods, imports of capital goods, imports of industrial raw material of consumer goods and imports of industrial raw material for consumer goods are considered. Cointegration test has been applied to check the long run relationship between human development and trade. Sensitivity analysis confirms that initial results are robust. Causality analysis has also been done the causal relationship between international trade and human development. Generally, it is concluded that trade is a significant contributor to human development in Pakistan.
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اسلم ملک

                اسلم ملک (۱۹۳۱ء پ) سیالکوٹ کے محلہ دھارو وال میں پیدا ہوئے ۔(۱۰۴۱) نثر نگاری ان کی پہچان ہے لیکن اظہار کے لیے انھوں نے شاعری کا لطیف پیرایہ بھی استعمال کیا ہے۔ اسلم ملک نے بچوں کے ادب کو زیادہ اہمیت دی ہے۔ اس لیے ان کی شاعری کا بڑا حصہ بچوں کی شاعری پر محیط ہے۔اسلم ملک نے حمد سے نعت ،غزل نظم اور ہائیکو جیسی اصناف میں طبع آزمائی کی ہے۔ اسلم ملک کا شعری مجموعہ ’’خواب اور خوشبو‘‘شائع ہو چکاہے۔ تصوف اور عشقِ حقیقی اسلم ملک کی شاعری کا ایک بڑا موضوع ہے۔ اسلم ملک کے نزدیک صرف خدائے رحیم و کریم ،تعظیم ،عظمت اور تمہیدو ستائش کا حقدار ہے۔ لالہ و گل میں اس کی خوشبو ہے۔ اور سورج چاند ستاروں کی روشنی بھی اسی سے ہے کیونکہ وہ نور اور نور کا منبع ہے:

لالہ و گل میں جو خوشبو ہے فقط تری ہے

 

چاند ستاروں کی چمک میں بھی ہے فیضان تیرا

 

گیت تیرے ہی سناتے ہیں پرندے سارے

 

بزمِ قیمتی کا ہر اک فرد ثنا خواں تیرا

 

â۱۰۴۲)

>             اﷲ تعالیٰ ہی کل کائنات کا خالق و مالک ہے۔ یہ ساری خلقت اس کا کنبہ ہے۔ وہ ساری مخلوقات کا پروردگار ہے۔ عرش و فرش اس کے جلال سے بھرپور اور معمور ہے۔ وہ بنی نوع انسان کے ہر درد کا درماں اور ہر مشکل میں عقدہ کشا ہے۔ اسلم ملک اپنی ایک حمدیہ نظم میں انھی خیالات کا اظہار اس طرح سے کرتے ہیں:

تو خالق و مالک ارض و سما

 

1سبحان اﷲ ، سبحان...

Prophet Sulaymén: An Analytical Study of Biblical Literature and the Qur’an

ABSTRACT: The Bible and the Qur’an are both replete with historical narratives related to previous nations, groups, individuals, and prophets. Both the sources have described, among others, Prophet Sulayman from various angles. These descriptions of Prophet Sulayman in the two great Scriptures are not similar everywhere. There are dissimilarities too. What are the similarities and dissimilarities between Biblical descriptions of Prophet Solomon and Qur’anic descriptions of Prophet Sulayman? This question has been addressed in the present paper with critical overtones.

Estimation of Saturation Flow and Lost Time at Selected Signalized Intersections of Karachi Pakistan

Due to rapid increase in car ownership and other related factors we often experience traffic Jam at intersections with formation of long queues. This is a common phenomenon in major cities of Pakistan. In order to solve this problem it is necessary to review the traffic signal setting. For a particular junction cycle time is an important parameter to minimize delay which ultimately causes formation of long queues and accidents. The most important factors in determining the optimum cycle time is saturation flow and lost time. Direct measurement of saturation flow is obviously desirable to achieve satisfactory results, but in case of new intersection, results from measurements of saturation flow are being estimated from the work of previous researchers. In case of Pakistan where no standard value of saturation flow and lost time are available pertaining to local traffic condition, values used in developed countries are being applied resulting in non achievement of optimum cycle time. This thesis describes experimental research which is carried out for estimating the saturation flow and lost time under local conditions of Karachi. Data was collected by video recording of traffic flow at eighteen (18) signalized intersections along two major arterials, namely Shahra-e-Faisal and M.A. Jinnah Road, of Karachi city. Recorded data was analyzed in laboratory to retrieve the information on the headway of all the vehicles in saturated cycles. The analysis of PCU values were carried out by comparing the average car headway with the average headway other vehicle type. Different studies show a great deal of variations in saturation flow rates and start-up lost times. This indicates a lack of stability. This is acknowledged in the HCM. Due to these instabilities, the HCM recommends that local data collection be performed to produce more accurate estimates of local saturation flow rates and start-up lost times. It is a known fact that there are close relationships between intersection characteristics and saturation flow. Empirical relationships have been developed for estimation of saturation flow and lost time for many countries such as Great Britain, Australia, U.S.A, Bangkok, Malaysia, India and Bangladesh etc but such relationship not developed for Pakistan as yet. vAn effort has been made in this research to derive empirical relationship between intersection characteristics (approach width) and saturation flow. Appropriate PCU values as per local traffic conditions have been calculated for saturation flow estimation. This is for the first time in Pakistan that such values, based on local traffic, has been calculated. In this thesis, an effort has been made to establish relationship between saturation flow and approach width and comparison of the results of has been carried out with previous work done. The major focus of this thesis is on measurement of departure headways at selected signalized intersections in Karachi (Pakistan) and to gather as much basic information as possible which can be used in the analysis of the collected data as required in the thesis. As outcome of the research, relationship has been established, through predictive models, for the estimation of saturation flow in Pakistan. The results obtained have a very practical application potential in Karachi and in urban areas of similar traffic characteristics.