Search or add a thesis

Advanced Search (Beta)
Home > Downside Risk Applied to Bankruptcy Prediction Models

Downside Risk Applied to Bankruptcy Prediction Models

Thesis Info

Access Option

External Link

Author

Saleem, Usama

Program

PhD

Institute

COMSATS University Islamabad

City

Islamabad

Province

Islamabad.

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2019

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Management Sciences

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/12513/1/Usama%20Saleem_Mngt%20Sci_2019_Comsats.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676724634707

Asian Research Index Whatsapp Chanel
Asian Research Index Whatsapp Chanel

Join our Whatsapp Channel to get regular updates.

Similar


Being able to predict bankruptcy can be very valuable for debtors, creditors, shareholders and other stakeholders. Historically, different models that predict corporate bankruptcy have been constructed. Three bankruptcy predicting models are used in this thesis; the models of Altman (1968), Ohlson (1980) and Shumway (2001). The relatively old original models are applied to U.S. listed firms. It became clear that when the original models are applied to a more recent sample of 1999-2013, the predictive power of the models is very low, and bankruptcy is over predicted. In order to be able to use the relatively old models in more recent periods, the results show that the models have to be re-estimated. The original models with the original variables are used, only the coefficients and the interpretation of the outcome of the models change by downside risk. The downside risk models show that especially variables of short term liquidity are more important now a day in predicting bankruptcy than in the original models. After reestimated the models, the accuracy rates of all models increased. Especially applying the downside risk models of Altman (1968) and Ohlson (1980) to the sample of 1999- 2013 result in high percentages of correctly classified observations and high areas under Receiver Operating Curves. The research was carried out with an aim to contribute to the discussion regarding business failure prediction of Pakistani Firms using Altman (1968) Z-Score, Ohlson (1980) O-Score and Shumway (2001) hazard model, its applicability and validity in Pakistani scenario so that to provide an addition into the literature of drivers of the prediction of the business failure in Pakistan. The research was carried on three research questions; can Altman (1968), Ohlson (1980) and Shumway(2001) model correctly forecast the bankruptcy problems in Pakistani environment, if not, can only changes in coefficients of Altman(1968) Ohlson (1980) and Shumway (2001)model’s ratios are sufficient for this purpose, is there is a need of new bankruptcy model for Pakistani firms and if so which of the financial ratios and relationships between financial ratios are useful in forecasting Pakistani business financial failure. This study used data of Pakistani publicly listed companies for the period of January 1999-December 2013 to test the accuracy of Altman’s Z-score, O-score a Hazard model in predicting failure of Pakistani’s companies and for model development. Multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), Logit and Probit are chosen as the suitable statistical technique. Multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), Logit and Probit is a statistical technique that can be employed to classify firms into one or more mutually exclusive categories such as bankrupt and non-bankrupt firms. MDA approach has been the most popular technique for bankruptcy studies as shown in literature. Results show that Altman(1968) model does fairly well for predicting the bankruptcy of a firm, with accuracy ranging from 94.6% to 83.9% but the model tends to misclassify a non-failed firm in to the failed group with error ranging from 61.1% to 91.1%.The re-estimated model does fairly well for predicting the delisting of a firm, with accuracy more than 80% as well as to predict with 100% accuracy for successful firms into the stable group with no error in whole yearly sample which is a high achievement of this model. Proposed model predict failure with overall 80%accuracy. Study findings suggest that results of Altman (1968), OhlsonO-Score and Shumway (2001) hazard model to estimate financial distress of sample firms should be interpreted cautiously in Pakistan, due to its low predication in successful companies. The re-estimated and proposed models give better results.
Loading...
Loading...

Similar Books

Loading...

Similar Chapters

Loading...

Similar News

Loading...

Similar Articles

Loading...

Similar Article Headings

Loading...

مولانا سید صباح الدین عبدالرحمن

سید صباح الدین عبدالرحمن
بڑے ہی افسوس کی بات ہے کہ مشہور عالم،تحقیقی،علمی اور ادبی مرکز دار المصنفین اعظم گڑھ کے ناظم اور اردو زبان کے ممتاز علمی،ادبی اور تحقیقی رسالے ’معارف‘ کے مدیر سید صباح الدین عبدالرحمن کااچانک ایک سڑک حادثے میں انتقال ہوگیا۔انا ﷲ واناالیہ راجعون۔وہ اپنے ایک عزیزاورمشہور مصنف سید شہاب الدین دسنوی کے ساتھ ایک رکشہ پرندوہ سے فرنگی محل جارہے تھے کہ ایک گائے ان کے رکشہ سے ٹکراگئی اورگائے کی یہ ٹکر موت کی ٹکر ثابت ہوئی کیونکہ سید صباح الدین اس کی ٹکر کے جھٹکے سے سڑک پرگرے توپیچھے سے آنے والے ٹرک نے ان کے سرکوکچل دیا اوروہ آناًفاناً اس دنیا کوچھوڑ کر دوسری دنیا کے سفر پر روانہ ہوگئے۔یہ حادثہ ڈالی گنج کے لوہے کے پل کے قریب پیش آیا ان کے ہمراہی سید شہاب الدین دسنوی پوری طرح محفوظ رہے اورانھیں کوئی گزند نہیں پہنچا، اس سے ثابت ہوتاہے کہ موت دراصل ان ہی کے لیے رکشہ تک آئی تھی اورایک جھپٹے میں ان کی روح قبض کرکے اس نے مشیت کے حکم کی تعمیل کردی۔ اﷲ تعالیٰ کروٹ کروٹ جنت نصیب کرے۔
سید صباح الدین عبدالرحمن شبلی اسکول کے آخری تابندہ ستارے تھے اور اس سلسلے کی آخری کڑی تھے، جس نے مولانا شبلی نعمانی اوران کے تربیت یافتہ مصنفین نے اردو ادب کے علمی،ادبی اورتحقیقی میدانوں میں ایسے کارنامے انجام دیے کہ اردو جیسی شعر و شاعری کی زبان اورزبانوں کی برادری میں سب سے کم عمر اور نئی زبان دنیا کی ترقی یافتہ اورعلمی زبانوں کی آنکھ میں آنکھ ڈال کر بات کرنے کے قابل بن گئی۔سید صباح الدین عبدالرحمن کواگرچہ شبلی کے دامن سے براہ راست وابستگی کاموقع نہیں ملا لیکن وہ دارالمصنفین اورماہنامہ معارف کے اس سنہری دور میں دارالمصنفین سے وابستہ ہوئے جو سید سلیمان ندوی کے علمی، تاریخی اور تحقیقی...

کرنسی بنانے کا اختیار اور موجودہ کرنسی کی شرعی و فقہی حیثیت اور فقہا کی آرا

Who has the authority of making money in Islamic Law? What is the value of current currency? What is the historical back ground of present paper currency? In this article all these issues are taken up and analyzed in the light of opinions of various schools of  hought. 

Harmonic Maps on Riemannian Manifolds

In this thesis we study the harmonicity of smooth maps between Rieman- nian manifolds endowed with some special geometrical structures (Sasakian, Kenmotsu, Kahler, f -structures, generalized Sasakian). The most of maps are generalizations of holomorphic maps, namely it intertwines the geomet- rical structures. We also obtain some results on spectral theory and stability of harmonic maps. We give conditions for a harmonic map to be a har- monic morphism. For most of the results we give some nice applications, for instance in the theory of immersions.