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Home > Long Run Relationship Between Macroeconomic Performance of Pakistan and its Stock Market: A Dynamic Econometric Analysis

Long Run Relationship Between Macroeconomic Performance of Pakistan and its Stock Market: A Dynamic Econometric Analysis

Thesis Info

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Author

Imad-Ud-Din Akbar, Muhammad

Program

PhD

Institute

National College of Business Administration and Economics

City

Lahore

Province

Punjab

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2018

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Economics

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/11268/1/PhD%20Thesis%20of%20Muhammad%20Imad-Ud-Din%20Akbar.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676724846017

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The present study investigates relationship between the stock market and macroeconomic indicators of Pakistan by using monthly data from 1992M01 to 2012M12. In this empirical study, certain econometric techniques have been used to estimate linear regression models with OLS, ARDL cointegration, vector error correction mechanism (VECM). Furthermore, causality between performance of Pakistan stock market and its macroeconomic performance have been investigated by employing Pairwise Granger-causality tests devised by Granger (1988); Engle and Granger (1987) and Granger et al. (2000). On existence of bi-directional causality between performance of Pakistan stock market and its macroeconomic performance a system of simultaneous equations have also been estimated by the method of Two-stages least squares. Statistical results generated from the above estimated models indicate that macroeconomic variables such as Taxes on Products (TAX), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Money Supply (M2), Nominal Exchange rate Pakistan Rupees per US Dollar (EXR), Gross Domestic Savings (SAV), Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Nominal Interest Rate (INT) at levels and with lagged values have impact on the performance of Pakistan stock market proxied by KSEI, KSER, KSECAP, KSETV and KSETO. Results also show that TAX has insignificant impact on Pakistan stock market when the performance of stock market is proxied by KSEI, KSER, KSECAP, and KSETV. Contrast to it, TAX has positive and significant influence on the performance of Pakistan stock market when it is proxied by KSETO but negative impact in the following month. Results also indicate that inflation proxied by consumer price index (CPI) has negative impact on levels and positive impact in the following month and, then negative after two months on the performance of the stock market of Pakistan when proxied by KSEI, KSER, KSECAP and KSETV. The statistical results also indicate that money supply in the broader sense proxied by M2 has negative impact on levels and positive impact in the following month and, then negative after two months on the performance of the stock market of Pakistan when proxied by KSEI, KSER, KSECAP and KSETV. The statistical results obtained from the estimated techniques used in the study also indicate that nominal exchange rate has negative effect on levels and positive impact in the following month and then negative after two months on the performance of the stock market of Pakistan when proxied by KSECAP and KSETV but this impact reverses for KSETO. Meanwhile, it is also found from x the statistical results that saving has significant positive effects on levels and negative impact in the following month and, then positive after two months on the performance of the stock market of Pakistan when proxied by KSECAP. Results also indicate that savings have inverse but significant impact on levels, positive after one month and, then negative in the following month when the performance of the stock market of Pakistan is proxied by KSETV. On the other hand, it is found from the results that economic growth of Pakistan (GDP) has negative and significant effect on levels, positive in the next month and then positive after two months on the performance of the stock market of Pakistan when proxied by KSECAP and KSETV. The empirical results regarding the interest rate indicates that interest rate has positive and significant effect on level and negative impact in the following month on the performance of the stock market of Pakistan when proxied by KSECAP and KSETV. Meanwhile, results also conclude that interest rate has negative and significant impact in the current month and inverse in the following month on the performance of the stock market of Pakistan when proxied by KSETO. Statistical results also show that long run equilibrium relationship does exist between macroeconomic variables including TAX, CPI, M2, EXR, SAV, GDP and INT and the stock market of Pakistan proxied by KSEI, KSER, KSECAP and KSETO. Further, vector error correction mechanism (VECM) from ARDL (p, q) represents that long run equilibrium relationship does exist between macroeconomic variables and the stock market of Pakistan proxied by KSEI, KSER, KSECAP and KSETO. Also, error correction term indicates that long run equilibrium relationship between macroeconomic variables and the stock market of Pakistan does exist when performance of stock market is proxied by KSEI, KSER, KSECAP and KSETO. Meanwhile, estimated error correction term also represents the speed of adjustment in case of any departure from the long run equilibrium and it is estimated as 126.5237 percent or in other words it takes 24 days to fade away any departure from long run equilibrium in case of macroeconomic variables and performance of the stock market of Pakistan proxied by KSEI. Similarly, the speed of adjustment is 18.26 percent and it takes 164.29 days, 1.2830 percent and it takes 2343.82 days, 3.8285 percent or it takes 785.34 days to adjust back to long run equilibrium in case of any departure between macroeconomic variables and KSER, KSECAP and KSETO, respectively. Statistical results lead to conclusion that bi-directional granger causality does exist between economic growth and stock market of Pakistan proxied by KSECAP. The current empirical research also investigates the impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock market of Pakistan based on simultaneous equations system on existence of bi-directional granger causality. Moreover, simultaneous equations system is estimated by using 2SLS estimation technique and results lead to the conclusion that economic growth had significant impact on the stock market of Pakistan and simultaneously the stock market of Pakistan has significant impact on economic growth of Pakistan. The current empirical study has short run as well as long run implications especially when policy makers are designing policies about the growth prospects of financial markets, fund manager making investment decisions to invest in the capital markets, and project managers formulating capital investment decisions in emerging economies like Pakistan. Further, implications are useful for retail investors looking for good returns on investments in capital markets such as stock market. Hence, by considering the role of macroeconomic variables in performance of stock market a better policy can be formulated to enhance the growth of capital markets included stock market that in turn will increase the economic growth of emerging economies like Pakistan.
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قاضی ظہور الحسن ناظم ؔسیوہاروی

قاضی ظہورالحسن ناظمؔ سیوہاروی
افسوس ہے گزشتہ مہینہ قاضی ظہور الحسن صاحب ناظمؔ سیو ہاری نے داعی اجل کولبیک کہا۔ مرحوم رشتہ میں راقم الحروف کے ماموں تھے۔بڑے ذہین، طباع،بذلہ سنج اورقادرالکلام شاعر تھے۔فن پربڑاعبور تھا۔تاریخ گوئی میں توشاید ہی اُن کاکوئی جواب ہو۔اس خاص کمال کی وجہ سے نظام حیدرآباددکن کے دامنِ دولت سے وابستہ ہوگئے اورعرصہ تک وظیفہ پاتے رہے۔غالباً۱۹۲۸ء میں جب ’’نظام‘‘ گورنمنٹ انڈیا سے برارکا معاملہ طے کرنے دلّی آئے تھے تومرحوم نے اس تقریب سے ایک عجیب وغریب قصیدہ لکھا تھا جس میں ۱۹ اشعارتھے اور ہرشعر سے سات طرح دلّی آنے کی تاریخ نکلتی تھی۔پھر لطف یہ تھا کہ ہرشعر کے پہلے حرف کوملائیے تواُسی بحر اوراُسی ردیف وقافیہ کاایک شعرہوجاتا تھا اوراس سے بھی سات طرح تاریخ برآمد ہوتی تھی۔نظام نے اس پر خوش ہوکر ان کے منصب میں اضافہ کردیا اوراب وہ مستقلاً حیدرآباد میں رہنے لگے تھے۔ علاوہ بریں اُن کو تصنیف وتالیف کا بھی بڑا متنوع ذوق تھا۔ تاریخ،فقہ،ادب و تنقید، لسانیات، شعروشاعری ان میں سے ہرموضوع پرانھوں نے کتابیں لکھی ہیں۔آخر میں اردو کی انسائیکلو پیڈیا لکھنی شروع کی تھی جوناتمام رہ گئی۔اخلاقی اعتبار سے خوش مزاج اورخندہ روبزرگ تھے۔لطائف وظرائف سینکڑوں کی تعداد میں یاد تھے اور انھیں موقع و محل کے لحاظ سے مزے لے لے کرسناتے تھے۔نماز باجماعت پڑھتے تھے اورادووظائف کاشغل بھی رکھتے تھے۔بزرگان دیوبند کے صحبت یافتہ اوران کے نام کے عاشق تھے۔دنیوی معاملات میں بھی بڑی سوجھ بوجھ رکھتے تھے۔اللھم اغفرلہ وارحمہ۔
[مئی۱۹۶۰ء]

 

المحكم والمتشابه وموقف المفسر منهما

The Mohkam and Mutashabeh is a renowned terminology of the Quranic Sciences and commentators of the Holy Quran described it in details, according to root words of Mohkam, it means Stopping and perfecting the things, this basic meaning can be seen in all the types and variations of this word. On the other hand we have the word Mutashabeh which root meaning is complication and unclearness. If we discuss both of the words as a terminology of the Quranic sciences, we can define Mohkam as “one which define itself without any other thing” or “one which has no need to be defined by something else” and Mutashabeh is “one which can’t define itself and need to be explained by someone else”. We will move on to discuss both terms in Holy Quran as a terminology to describe its multiple variations in the Holy Quran, its types and further we will discuss that why the Holy Quran contains both terms, in other words, we can say which are the logics and reasons of including Mutashabeh verses in the Holy Quran. In addition, we will mention the point of views of various renowned commentators and fields experts which give us a clear and sound concept about both of the terms.

Classification and Associative Classification Rule Discovery Using Ant Colony Optimization

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