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Modeling of Urban Population Dynamics and Morphological Pattern in the Perspective of Data Distribution: Karachi As a Test Case

Thesis Info

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Author

Ilyas, Muhammad

Program

PhD

Institute

Federal Urdu University of Arts, Science and Technology

City

Islamabad

Province

Islamabad

Country

Pakistan

Thesis Completing Year

2019

Thesis Completion Status

Completed

Subject

Mathemaics

Language

English

Link

http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/bitstream/123456789/12550/1/Muhammad%20Ilyas%20FUUAST.pdf

Added

2021-02-17 19:49:13

Modified

2024-03-24 20:25:49

ARI ID

1676726659310

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Considering the stochastic urban continuous-time complex system in requisites of urban evolution Ue= Ue (Pm Mp, EC, HD) as a function of urban population dynamics P and morphological pattern/structure M along with urban environmental/climatically variability E concerning human urban infectious dengue disease H, this dissertation studies the variation and their interactions of P, M and H with E components for the city of Karachi. Chapter 0, Looks into the urban evolution as a complex system, the megacity Karachi has challenged numerous problems due to uncontrolled urban population dynamics, morphological pattern, their socio-health and climatically impacts on seasonal urban vector-borne disease methodology and objectives are debated. Chapter 1, Consider the general literature review regards as our selected four functional components (Pm, Mp, EC, HD) for the urban complex system. Chapter 2, Studies the Stochastic ARIMA models prefer to intend for estimation and forecasting of urban population of the Karachi (from 1951 to 2016) by diagnostic checking with Bayesian and Non-Seasonal Holt- Winters forecasting algorithm. For the most adequate ARIMA (1,2,1) model with Holt-Winter forecasting algorithm obtain the small values of MAPE and high value of the Geary’s α statistic normality check test suggests for the prediction in the years of 2020, 2025 and 2015 to 2030. These results show that the ARIMA (1,2,1) seem to similar Winter’s forecast for upcoming 15-years interval. Chapter 3, An investigation of logarithm irregular and regular population (from 1729 to 1946 and 1951 to 2015) over three centuries of the Karachi city, this work uses statistical probability distribution tails to define the dynamics of centuries and the decades as well as whole population intervals. The adequate probability distributions analyze with the help of fitting tests (CST, KST and ADT) and analytical data plotting. The Lognormal distribution can better explain the population behavior in centuries wise total irregular (1729 to 1946) interval, although the Weibull distribution is initiate to be the adequate population fitting for the total regular (1951 to 2015) interval of Karachi. Additionally, The Log Normal and Weibull distributions find the most suitable to the fitting as a heavy tail of the population''s irregular and regular intervals, the Log normal and Weibull distribution is found subsuper exponential tails using methods of validation for both intervals. The actual population data analysis indicates that the heavy-tailed distributions are fitted contract than the more commonly seen lighter tailed Gamma distribution. So, the Monte Carlo Simulation performs the appropriate Lognormal and Weibull distributions for irregular and regular data and generate data values (298 and 69) from duration of 1729 to 2020 and 1951 to 2020. Now, deliberate the second most important part (urban morphology) of this dissertation in chapter 4, studies the 5-districts and 18-town’s population-area relationship using our develop novel Oncologic surface mapping Techniques. Also, the population census data of subunits (districts and towns) of the Karachi city for the year of 1981, 1998 and 2002 respectively, we determine population density by using our construct spatial surface GIS maps. It is determined that the 18-town form has improved than the 5-district pattern. By the help of Mann-Kendall test for spatial population Linear Trend Models determine irregular (1729 to 1946) and regular (1951 to 2015) interval. It is communicating that regular decade’s intervals for population-morphological evolution express that the trends is statistically significant base on alpha P-values (α= 5%).The Persistency of the irregular and regular interval test by Fractal dimension is 1.371 in 1729 to 1946 and 1.058 in 1951 to 2015.The Hurst exponents both methods (Range increment and second moments) are also confirms the prolonged Mean-Tail distributions persistency, The Hurst exponent values are more than 0.5 for the centuries and decades are too revealing persistency seems to remain relational towards the gradient increases of trend close-fitting for these intervals. Our develop morphological spatial maximum dense (SMaxP) and minimum densest (SMinP) pivotal techniques for measurement of the one to other pivotal distance reveal that on 5-districts and 18-towns base in the census years 1981,1998 and 2002 with the help of Spatial GIS-based Mapping enquiries and Flatten Gradient Density Modeling. To, compute the population densities for all the districts and towns, which is also declare that SMinP for town wise density distribution results appear to be better than the SMaxP results, Log linear, Exponential, Logarithmic and second order polynomial transformation trend models is verified the results. Chapter 5, studies the vector-borne dengue fever is the utmost imperative arboviral disease of urban population, stirring in the subtropical city of Karachi, Pakistan. Dengue is recorded as an urban human disease since it binges in urban morphology and climatic variables, including Land Surface Mean Temperature ( ), Rainfalls ( ) and El Niño Southern Oscillation index ( ) from January 2001 to December 2016. The basic oncological statistical treatment with trend analysis of climate and dengue outbreaks are observing high in dengue incidences during the months of September to November, as well as the descriptive kurtosis value of dengue count (27.765 >3) suggests that leptokurtic and increasing flattened tail for dengue data because of the influence of climatic parameters. The fractal spectrum analysis also confirms the anti-persistent behavior of dengue for the months of September to November (highest seasonal epidemic dengue periods) and the normality tests indicate the robust sign of the intricacy of data. In this stage the comparative research shows a significant association between monthly dengue and climatic variation by probabilistic ARIMAX (p), PARX (p)-NBARX (p) models, although Over Dispersion tests values also smallest value of AIC (3.897), NBARX (p) is prefer more appropriate model for next twelve months forecasting. Chapter 6, Concludes the principle results and Mathematical Oncological methodologies, which are found in our selected four functional components (Pm, Mp, EC, HD) for the urban stochastic complex system. At the end of this chapter, it has been revealed in addition to the future work and suggestions.
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پروفیسر سید ضیاء الحسن ندوی

پروفیسر سید ضیاء الحسن ندوی
سخت افسوس ہے کہ پروفیسر سید ضیاء الحسن ندوی ۲۰؍ جنوری ۲۰۰۳؁ء کو حرکت قلب بند ہو جانے سے وفات پاگئے، اناﷲ وانا الیہ راجعون، وہ دارالعلوم ندۃالعلما کے بڑے لایق اور ہونہار فرزندوں میں تھے، ندوہ سے فراغت کے بعد انہوں نے جدید تعلیم حاصل کی پھر جامعہ ملیہ اسلامیہ کے شعبہ عربی میں لکچرر ہوئے اور ترقی کر کے پروفیسر اور صدر شعبہ ہوئے، اس وقت فیکلٹی آف ہیو مینٹیز اینڈ لینگویجز کے ڈین بھی تھے، جدید اور ماڈرن عربی میں ان کو مکمل دست گاہ تھی، ’’مہجری ادب‘‘ پر ان کی ایک کتاب بھی شایع ہوئی ہے اور بیرون ملک کے جراید و رسائل میں ان کے مضامین بھی چھپتے تھے، عربی زبان پر اچھی قدرت ہی کی وجہ سے انڈین کونسل فارکلچرل ریلیشنس کے سہ ماہی عربی رسالہ ثقافتہ الھند کے اڈیٹر مقرر کیے گئے تھے اور اس کا ایک ضخیم اور شان دار نمبر مولانا سید ابوالحسن علی ندوی پر نکالا تھا۔
مولانا علی میاں اور دارالعلوم ندوۃالعلما سے ان کا بڑا گہرا تعلق تھا، دارالعلوم کے کاموں میں نہایت سرگرم اور پیش پیش رہتے تھے، اس کی مختلف کمیٹیوں کے ممبر بھی تھے، عالمی رابطہ ادب اسلامی کے بھی رکن تھے، اس کے اجلاس میں بڑے شوق اور دلچسپی سے شریک ہوتے تھے اور اس کے لیے متعدد بیرونی ملکوں میں بھی تشریف لے گئے، مولانا سید محمد رابع ندوی ناظم ندوۃالعلما کو ان پر بڑا اعتماد تھا، ان سے اور ان کے چھوٹے بھائی مولانا سید محمد واضح ندوی سے بہت گھلے ملے رہتے تھے، علمی صلاحیتوں کے ساتھ ان میں انتظامی خوبیاں بھی تھی۔
مرحوم بڑے مرنجاں مرنج، وسیع المشرب اور طبعاً شریف اور خوش مزاج تھے، ہر ایک سے خندہ روئی سے ملتے، اپنی نیکی، وضع داری، اخلاص اور علم دوستی کی بنا...

Assessment of Dietary Behavior of Children Aged between 3-12 Years Suffering from Thalassemia Visiting Tertiary Care Hospitals, Lahore Dietary behavior of Thalassemia children

Thalassemia is a hereditary blood disorder passed down through families in which the body makes hemoglobin in an abnormal form. Nutritional deficiencies in thalassemia children results in anemia and other medical complications. Objective: To assess dietary behavior of children aged between 3-12 years suffering from thalassemia. Methods: A cross-sectional study was carried out in the outdoor patient department of thalassemia at Sir Ganga Ram Hospital, Lahore for 4 months.100 patients were selected through non probability sampling technique. Data was tabulated and analyzed by SPSS version 21.0. Results: Thalassemia was more prevalent in the age group of 8-12 years. Nutritional deficiencies in thalassemia patients caused anemia as it was evident from results that 74% of thalassemic children had pale skin. As far as dietary intake was concerned only 4% of thalassemia children were consuming meat and meat products.58% of thalassemia children consumed milk on daily basis. Only 8% took green leafy vegetables on daily basis as it contains high amount of iron. Micro nutrient deficiencies as vitamin A, C were common among thalassemia patients as only 30% were consuming fruits on daily basis. Conclusions: Most of the thalassemiacchildren were found to be malnourished due to inadequate dietary intake. The caregivers and parents should be counseled to create awareness

Phytopharmaceutical Evaluation of Various Extracts of Carica Papaya L. Against Dengue Fever

Dengue is one of the most leading mosquito-borne viral infection, considered as one of the major health problem associated with high rate of morbidity and motility. The root cause of dengue infection are four distinct but serotypically related virus (DENV-1, 2, 3 and 4). WHO estimated about more than 50,000,000 dengue cases reported worldwide. Primarily, dengue leads to dengue fever (DF), an acute febrile illness, while Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) or Dengue Shock Syndrome (DSS) are secondary infection to DF. To-date, there is no proper medical treatment available against dengue. Recent studies indicated a direct infection of the platelets by the dengue virus. Clinical severity associated with dengue is potentially due to thrombocytopenia while in DHF, thrombocytopenia is associated with increased vascular permeability, haemorrhagic manifestations and any further decrease in platelet counts leads to lethality. So, there is a need of a regimen that can not only improve the disease outcome but also linked with the least side effects. Investigations on the effects of fresh aqueous leaf extract of Carica papaya Linn on the thrombocytes count of DF, DHF and DSS patients has provided promising results because of the presence of alkaloids, saponins and other phenolic compounds in leaves. The use of the papaya aqueous leaf extracts is one of the most inexpensive, therapeutically effective herbal management particularly in the less privileged and dengue endemic under developing countries. The purpose of the present study was to establish the quality standard of male and female papaya leaves separately along with quantification of bioactive compounds as they are important in dengue fever management. A significant difference was observed among alkaloids, phenols and saponins in both the leaves (p<0.01). Phytoconstituents including alkaloids, phenolics and saponins were found to be significantly different (p<0.01) in both male and female aqueous and ethanolic leaf extracts. The results delineated that aqueous extracts from female plant is richer in alkaloids while male leaves are richer in phenols. Furthermore, the aqueous crude extract of both male and female plant was accessed for tablet formulation. Extracts were first accessed for microbial contamination test and were found to be negative. Pre formulation studies were performed on both male and female aqueous extracts as well as for excipients. Significant difference (p<0.01)was observed for male and female leaf extract powders relating to bulk density, tapped density and Hausner’s ratio while no significant difference is seen for angle of repose and carr’s index. FTIR analysis was done for male and female aqueous extracts and also for excipient’s compatibility. The Interferogram delineated no significant difference after the addition of excipient to both the dried aqueous extract. All the ingredient showed good flow properties so direct compression method of tablets was selected. Post formulation studies were done on the prepared aqueous male and female leaf extracts tablets including general appearance, weight variation, hardness testing, friability testing, disintegration and dissolution profiles. Significant difference (p<0.05) was observed for only in disintegration. Tablets were also tested for their stability during storage period of one month. Tablets stored at 40°C and 75% humidity failed to pass the test while at 25°C; normal humidity and 5°C; 0% humidity passed the test. Finally, both kinds of tablets were preliminary analyzed to evaluate their potential role. For the said, six dengue positive subjects (of both gender) were selected based on criteria and administered with the tablets along with the standard therapy. Their platelet count for the next five days were analyzed. Results showed significant potential of aqueous female leaf extracts tablets (p<0.05) as compared to aqueous male leaf extracts tablets in terms of increasing and stabilizing the platelet count during treatment. Previous literature reported in general that Carica papaya aqueous leaf extract can be used as a first aid oral treatment in dengue but the data did not report the difference in phytoconstituents of male and female leaves of the plant separately.The current research depicted this difference.Data from the current research would be useful in development of medication for dengue in future from female plant leaves. However, randomized clinical trials based on large scale are still needed in order to establish potentiating role of Carica papaya aqueous leaf extract, especially from female leaves, in the management and/or treatment of dengue and its associated complication.